A toss-up in Louisiana's Senate race?
By Blake Paterson • October 30, 2026
Welcome to another edition of Perdido Street, your weekday newsletter covering power and politics in Louisiana.
It’s T-minus 4 days until Election Day, and suddenly, the Gret State has a competitive Senate race on its hands.
A poll released Friday by Democrat Jamie Davis shows him in a dead heat with GOP Congresswoman Julia Letlow, at 45% each. Among registered Independents, Davis led Letlow by 23 percentage points, according to the poll, which surveyed 502 voters statewide and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
GOP Congresswoman Julia Letlow (left) and Democrat Jamie Davis (right)
Louisiana is “NO different” from red states like Kansas and South Carolina, where polls have also shown a surge in Democratic support, largely due to dissatisfaction with Trump and the GOP majority, according to a memo from Hart Research Associates, the polling firm hired by Davis’ campaign.
Trump’s favorability rating in Louisiana is at 48%, the poll found. Compare that to 2024, when Trump won the state with 60% of the vote. (Trump plans to hold a tele-rally for Letlow alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday.)
Louisiana’s Senate contest started gaining national attention earlier this week, after a massive turnout in early voting suggested the race was more competitive than initially thought.
To win, the memo says Davis needs to focus on turning out the vote and boosting his name recognition. Only 52% of poll respondents recognized Davis, compared to 77% for Letlow. (Among the 47% who recognized both, Davis had a “significant double-digit lead,” the memo notes.)
But the clock is ticking, and voters have a busy weekend ahead. Saturday is Halloween. And Sunday is for church. (Around 45% of Louisiana adults are “highly religious,” according to Pew Research.)
On Wednesday, a pro-Letlow super PAC launched a $400,000 ad campaign targeting Davis, featuring an AI-generated image of Davis, a farmer and former Tensas Parish police juror.
John Couvillon, a pollster with Baton Rouge-based JMC Analytics, told me earlier this week to expect a surge in third-party spending as Election Day nears.
I’m registered as No Party and plan to vote on Election Day.
That’s probably why, on Friday, shortly after the poll was released, I received a text message from Sen. John Kennedy’s Common Sense for America PAC urging me to vote.
“Democrats are already voting in huge numbers,” it read, above an image showing a group of lefty activists (a bearded drag queen? a short-haired woman screaming into a megaphone?) facing off against a scared, elderly couple. “How you vote is a private matter. Whether or not you vote is a matter of public record,” it added.
Text message sent out Friday by Common Sense for America PAC
“Democrats and the fake news don’t want you to vote,” read a text accompanying the image. “Their lies only work if you stay home.”
Perdido Street encourages everyone to vote. Click here to find your polling location.
Send examples of the political advertising you receive ahead of Election Day to [email protected].
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This week, readers of Perdido Street got an exclusive on Essence Fest’s future in New Orleans (the story went viral on X and prompted other local outlets to do their own stories), a rundown on what the incoming RTA CEO has planned and more coverage of Louisiana’s Senate contest.
Next week, expect more reporting on power and politics in Louisiana, with exclusive stories from New Orleans, Jefferson Parish and St. Tammany Parish.
Have a happy Halloween! I’ll be dressed as a vampire. What about you?
